Grapes, Tree Fruit and Citrus Market Report May 1 to May 7
The red seedless market has cleaned up fast, with demand-exceeds supply situation due to no late season arrival vessels from Chile. FOBs will finish at a record level never seen before, as the industry struggles to figure out how to bridge the gap with Mexico. Little to no supplies remain and will most likely all clean up from inventories on both coasts this week. It will remain a thief’s market on any high spot pricing. Do not expect to see readily available fruit on the market as all commitments and movements are null-in-void. Mexico will not start the red harvest until at least May 22nd. This will leave a 3 – 4-week gap in availability on retail shelves. Crop volume will start light from Mexico, with true shippable volume not until June.
The green seedless crop is done. Inventories on both coasts have finished up and only pieces remain to try to cover small commitments. Storage fruit volume was extremely light this season from Chile due to both weather and shipping to other export markets. FOBs will finish at a record high for storage fruit, as the last of the Sweet Globe and Autumn Crisp clean-up. Do not expect to see any supplies remaining to cover demand in the West. With only a small amount of late Peru and Brazilian in the East. The West will be in a 3-week gap until Mexico starts. First harvests in Mexico are delayed until at least May 15th, with no true harvest volume or alleviation on record demand until early June.
The last of the black seedless crop from Chile will go for another 7 – 10 days, but that market continues to firm as well. The lack of red and green seedless has moved customers into the only color with some supplies left to ship. Quality is still good on both Adora and Autumn Royal black seedless, but supplies will dwindle quickly. Expect FOB’s to continue to firm until we reach the very near finish line. Mexico not starting until late May.
Virtually done for the season as well. Only a small amount remains, mostly on the East Coast. The lack of other colors will quickly clean up any remaining red globes. The gap will be long between growing regions, with Mexico not starting until late June on their first picks.
Tree Fruit – Imports
The CA crop remains late, with the first harvests this week… but in a very light way starting May 3rd – 8th. Harvest volume out of the Arvin growing region will be limited until the weather warms and maturity picks up. Volume in Central CA is not until late in May. Harvest volume will start picking up right around Memorial Day, in time to allow for small volume ads but not nearly sharp enough on FOB pricing to drive aggressive retail promotions. The best volume will be the last week of May and early June from CA. Expect the ability to promote in June the CA crop and move through an estimated 8.5 million case crops. RAIN POSSIBLY 5/3 – 5/5. THAT COULD CHANGE THE CROP PROJECTION FAST.
First, peach harvests are still delayed and still late. The first harvest is expected around May 5th in both Arvin and Kettlement, but another cooling trend is hitting this week that may delay further. White peach will be 5 days behind the yellow start. Fruit is going to be small in size at the start. Avoid carrying until harvest actually shows signs of starting. No promotions volume until Central CA is in full swing in June.
Same thing as a yellow peach. First harvest is not until May 3rd – 5th, but it will be limited and small in size right out the gate. Zee Fire from Arvin in late May and leading to better harvest volume in mid-May from Central CA. Light promotions in late May but hold volume movement on both yellow and white nectarine until at least June.
Plums from Chile will continue for just a few more weeks. Blake Kat and Angelino on the black plums, Happy Giant and Flavor-Fall on the red. Pricing will likely firm in mid-April once new arrivals finish for the season. Continue to promote plum as the peach and nectarine crop finish. CA plums won’t be ready to kick off until mid-to-late May.
The first harvest is next week, between May 3rd – 5th. But in a very limited way from Kettleman ranches. These will be an apricot/pluot hybrid at the start. First, true apricots are 7 days later. Expect an average crop volume once harvest starts, but delays have pushed back both the maturity and size of the fruit. The volume will pick up by mid-May, with the promotion window in late May and most of June.
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