Grapes, Tree Fruit and Citrus Market Report October 31 to November 06
November is shaping to makeup the breaking point for the red seedless with an expected early finish by mid-December. Scarlet Royal will continue in lighter supplies, with Allison and Scarlotta being the two main varieties for the finish. Color will begin to lighten up and shatter will be present to the finish line. Volumes are lighter then expected due to heat and rain damage caused during the summer. FOB pricing will firm and available volume will slow in November and avoid promotions in December until the first Peruvian fruit arrives at the end of the month.
Autumn King and Autumn Crisp are it for the finish of the CA crop. Based on field volume left to harvest, as well as totes in cold storage, the crop is expected to continue through the middle of December. While California is getting close to waning, the first Peruvian fruit is already harvested and, on the water, destined for the US. The East Coast will have fruit by the middle of the month, with the West Coast to follow by early December. Get ready to make the switch quick once quality begins to faulter.
Autumn Royals will continue to harvest for the next 2 – 3 weeks, with supplies expected to stretch into late November / early December. Quality is good and volume is similar to previous seasons. Continue to carry for the color break and additional sales, then wind down moving into late November. Black seedless volume from South America will not hit until December to start the season with some new varieties coming into production.
The Red Globe crop is slowly nearing the finish from CA. Some growers have finished, but supplies still remain in spots to reach the crop finish. Expect FOB’s to slowly increases, but luckily Peruvian fruit is right on its tail. Fruit has already arrived on the East and will follow shortly to the West. No gap is anticipated in supplies unless demand greatly increases once CA finishes.
Tree Fruit – Imports
The South American crop has begun, with harvest starting in both Argentina and Chile. The first fruit is being air flown to Asia… but US arrivals are not far behind. First arrivals will start hitting within the next 7 – 10 days. Due to air flight costs, FOBs will remain high even through crop volume is large with good opportunities to promote. Expect real volume to not arrive until after Thanksgiving and the first vessels arrive. By then volume will be peaking and FOB pricing will come down enough for most retailers to carry and focus on driving volume.
Light supplies of Chilean Murcott still remain in the states with moderate enough volume to continue to fill the pipeline until CA starts. Expect limited amounts to try to fill the demand gap. FOB’s will remain high and continue to firm. California will start with some limited supplies of early variety this week, but true clementine variety are not expected until early November. Still, importers will look to clean up in time for new crop.
The last of the Chilean and South African fruit will make its way through the system just in time for CA to kick in in better volume. CA has started harvest on fresh navels, but size will peak on 88’s and smaller with 4 days of gas to color. CA volume will pick up steadily as weather cools and gas volume drops moving into mid-November, especially as more cooler nights arrive to bring on better natural color.
California is getting ready for new growing regions to starter. There is still in some supply from D3, before waiting for the D1 transition in mid-November. Once CA D1 starts, promotable volume will resume but likely peak on smaller sized fruit like 140’s and 165’s.
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